Monday, March 10, 2008

Rate Watch


Volatile mortgage rates finish up

After another volatile week in the mortgage markets, mortgage rates end higher yet again. From Monday to Thursday, the 10-year Treasury fluctuated from 3.59 percent 3.70 percent. The volatility was caused mostly by fears regarding inflation, and it continues to be a concern. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which compiles anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, showed that inflation continues to be on the rise. Both the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage reacted very negatively to the news.

On Friday, mortgage and bond rates were finally curbed a little by the release of February's Employment report. It showed an economy in the midst of a recession. The economy lost 63,000 jobs, mostly in the Manufacturing and Construction sectors. The worsing economy appears to have trumped inflation fears as mortgage rates came down slightly on the news.

This morning, Bankrate.com's overnight average on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage came in at 6.09 percent, up 29 basis points from last week's 5.80 percent. Other products followed. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 5.49 percent, up from last Monday's 5.16 percent. And the 5-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage averaged 5.35 percent, up from 4.94 percent.

This week, the big news will come from Thursday's Retail Sales Report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on Friday. The Retail Sales report will provide either evidence of further economic decline or a hopeful rebound. The Consumer Price Index will provide us with further evidence of inflation or not. Both these reports will set the tone for next week's Fed meeting. It is presumed the Fed will cut interest rates another 50 basis points on March 18th.

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